Friday, October 2, 2009

Week 4 Picks

As always, home teams in caps.

HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland
Jamarcus Russel has completed 41.3% of passes this year. I think I could nail 50 for the Raiders. Oakland can't make big plays down the field and Houston can.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
The Titans are a desperate team at 0-3. I'm giving them one final chance to get involved in the 09-10 NFL season. On a side note, this game will be blacked out most definitely.

Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND
I don't feel great about this one. But based on what I've watched, Tom Brady is not quite comfortable in the pocket and that's never a good thing when playing the Ravens. The Pats defense has overachieved so far.

Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND
This falls under my new rule: bet against teams that hate their new coach after three games. Also, the Browns have scored 1 offensive TD in the past 32 quarters (and that was last year).

New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs should be able to top The Bucs performance of last week (80 yards of offense). They should at least get to 110 yards against the Giants.

Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO
The winning streak won't continue, but the cover streak should. This Lions team is feeling great about itself and Stafford is playing with confidence. The Bears win a close one.

WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
Well, at least the Redskins don't play the Lions this week. I've got 5 words for you: Josh Johnson on the road. Even the Redskins can't blow this one.

INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle
Good news: the Seahawks won't be wearing those uniforms on the road. Bad news: Peyton Manning is on the field.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over New York Jets
I think I might be the only human being left who is skeptical of the Jets. Has anyone else noticed that Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do anything yet? This is a true road test for the young QB. The Saints crush this Jets defense and send them back to reality.

Buffalo (-1.5) over MIAMI
I can't talk myself into caring about this game. My only thought is Chad Henne's first start is against an underrated Buffalo defense.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis
The last of my four horrible teams to bet against, the Rams. Frank Gore is out and the 49ers are still almost double digit favorites. It's going to be a long year in the midwest.

Dallas (-3) over DENVER
I'm not buying the Broncos 3-0 start (like most of America). The Cowboys should be able to run the ball all game and Kyle Orton threatens no one down the field.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
I think this line is absurdly high. The Chargers have the most talent in football and Pittsburgh is missing their all-world safety. Philip Rivers throws the deep ball better than anyone. I think the Chargers win outright.

Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
This is the game that will shatter all viewing records. Favre vs. Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is the better QB and he'll make the plays necessary to win the game. Keep in mind the Vikings have beat the Browns, Lions, and luckily got past the 49ers. The Packers are in a different league.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 25-23

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