Week 8 Picks

Based on my weekly performance, I'm pretty mediocre. Average. The big .500. As always home teams in caps.

BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Denver

Okay, I swore that I would be backing the Broncos if they beat the Chargers. I lied. Seriously, I can't consciously pick them to win in what amounts to a must win game for the Ravens at home.

Cleveland (+13.5) over CHICAGO

How bad are the Browns? The Bears lost by 35 last week and are favored by almost 2 touchdowns. I'm not sure what to think at this point.

Houston (-3.5) over BUFFALO

The Bills are showing some life all of a sudden. But the Texans are a formidable offense that puts points up in bunches. I have two words: Ryan Fitzpatrick.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota

Favre! Lambeau! I just hope the end of the world doesn't occur when these two forces meet.

INDIANAPOLIS (-12.5) over San Francisco

The Colts are officially in the "we have to make them 2 touchdown favorites over anyone" zone. I'll stick with Peyton Manning regardless.

Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS

Quick turnaround for the second game between these teams. I'm not sure the Jets have had time to solve the "Wildcat" offense.

DETROIT (-4) over St. Louis

Maybe this is a sign of the end of times. The Lions are favored for the first time since week 1 last year. Lucky for them the Rams stink. I can't put it any other way.

DALLAS (-9.5) over Seattle

Are the Seahawks still playing? I haven't seen them since they wore those uniforms that burned my retinas. Let me know if you see them.

SAN DIEGO (-16.5) over Oakland

"I just can't seem to quit you."

Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE

Vince Young is not walking through that door! Actually he is, and that is a bad thing for Titans fans.

ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina

The Cardinals have reprised their role as best in class of the NFC West. The defense is playing well and the offense is Super Bowl quality.

PHILADELPHIA (+1) over New York Giants

I've watched this line go from -2.5 to +1 in a week. The public money is on the Giants and that's never a good sign. Maybe this is the week Michael Vick proves his value. Maybe.

Atlanta (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS

I don't care how good the Saints are. I can't justify giving 10.5 to the Falcons. I think the Saints win, but the Falcons keep it close in the similar setting of the dome.

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 53-50

Week 7 Picks

I hate gambling. As always home teams in Caps.

KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego

My break up with the Chargers will be slow and painful. I'll call them back and have them over late night a few times, but eventually, I have to get them out of my life. It's just too painful to be with them.

Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS

So the Colts get their bye week to prepare for the 0-6 juggernaut known as the Rams. Peyton Manning should be out of this game by the middle of the 3rd Quarter. On a side note, I don't see a game where the Rams will be less than a 7-point dog. Maybe the Lions game, but that's iffy at this point.

Chicago (+1.5) over CINCINNATI

Benson! Bears! Revenge on the mind! Okay, so that didn't get you excited. Don't NFL players play a former team every week? I guess Cedric Benson has reached national media status since he has a "revenge" game. Give me Cutler and an improved pass rush.

Green Bay (-8) over CLEVELAND

This line bothers me a bit. Josh Cribbs could have 2 huge returns and a surprisingly stout Browns defense could give a terrible Packer O-Line problems. I could see a 17-10 Packers win. Buy a point to get this line down to 7. Definite stay away game for me.

PITTSBURGH (-5.5) over Minnesota

I've seen this line at 4, but that doesn't make a huge difference to me. The Vikings are like a ship with some leaks in it; eventually, it gives way to the water. Going to Pittsburgh and facing a Steelers defense back to full strength will be the first loss for Favre in purple.

TAMPA BAY (+15) over New England (In London)

These London games are never played well. This is a ton of points for a game being played 3,000 miles away. I'm thinking New England won't be able to replicate last week's performance. They should win comfortably, but not by 3 possessions.

HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco

I have nothing to write about this game. However, I do want to discuss something. What are the credentials to be a MLB Manager? I was watching the Angels-Yankees game last night and I'm pretty sure both managers were doing everything they could to interject themselves into the game. I've got a suggestion: let your obscenely paid players do their job and put in the best pitchers when making changes. It's really annoying watching baseball in the postseason because of managers who feel the need to be the focus.

OAKLAND (+6) over New York Jets

Call me crazy, but I believe in the Raiders...to an extent. I suppose this is as much an indictment on Mark Sanchez, but the Raider defense is solid. This should be low scoring so I'll take the points.

Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA

Two bad teams. A lot of points. I'll take the touchdown and be happy.

New Orleans (-6.5) over MIAMI

I've seen a lot of pundits tabbing Miami for the win outright. Not happening. The Saints offense will be fine in the comfy confines of Miami. They'll continue to roll through the league with a precision passing game that is unparalleled.

Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS

Free money. This is a joke. Atlanta is the better team straight up. A lot of Dallas fans' money involved in this line. Feel free to take some of it. I like the Atlanta money line just as much.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona

This has tuned into a must win for both teams. The Giants need to beat somebody decent and the Cardinals can gather control of the NFC West this week. I'll put my faith in the team that attempts to run the ball.

Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON

B-7. I-16. N-23. G-32. O-41. BINGO! Those will be the first 5 play calls by Sherman Lewis. He'll quickly realize he's overmatched. It wouldn't surprise me if John Gruden leaves the booth at halftime to take over as head coach of the Redskins. Nothing would shock me at this point.

Last Week: 6-8

Season: 46-44

The Death of the Three-Team Teaser

Well, yesterday I reached the conclusion that I will not be placing anymore three-team teaser wagers. I'm done. Finished. No wonder it's called a teaser; it never actually comes through. In two successive weeks, I've picked 2 separate 10 point three-team teasers, one in college and one in the NFL. I lost the college teaser by 1 point; the NFL, which should be the surer bet wasn't even close. I was able to move the Eagles-Raiders line to Eagles -4. And of course, the Raiders win outright. I can't even begin to describe how many expletives I released while being subjected to Andy Reid's buffoonery. Add the fact that the Jets lost outright in OT to the Buffalo Bills at home and you can see why I'm done wagering on teasers. Depending on three teams to win a game is Russian Roulette apparently. In my college wager, I needed Washington St., an admittedly horrible team, to cover the spread by 45 points. So of course, the Cougars lose by 46. The lesson: don't depend on college kids when actually spending money.

College Football Thoughts

Well, I've spent an entire day watching college football. A few thoughts to ponder:

* Is it me or is the talent level and number of good teams way down? I watched Texas and Oklahoma (2 pre-season top 10 teams) play a game so sloppy, you may have seen a better performance at your local high school on Friday night. Just awful. 8 turnovers, 21 penalties, poor special teams: the definition of undisciplined football. Colt McCoy, one of the Heisman favorites, threw for 127 yards and averaged 3.3 YPA.

* To add to my previous thought, what happened to the supreme talent that Florida was supposed to posses. Their offense is extremely predictable and one-dimensional: snap to Tebow, try to block, Tebow run hard. I thought Urban Meyer was an offensive genius. There are no play-makers and no speed on the outside right now. I don't like their repeat chances.

* Notice the two teams in the above thoughts are the supposed favorites to play for the National Title. I'm just saying.

* Well, Notre Dame, you didn't let me down. I almost thought you were going to beat USC. Alas, things are normal. Consider how far the Irish have fallen. They were 10 point underdogs at home against a team starting a true freshman at quarterback. This is as mediocre a USC team as Weis will see; his opportunity to beat the Trojans has passed. Next year will be the 30 point drubbing we're all used to and most likely the end of Weis' "decided schematic advantage" at Notre Dame.

* Speaking of the Irish, how is the talent level on the defensive side of the ball and offensive line so poor? Weis obviously can identify talent (note the skill positions). Does he ignore the positions he doesn't care about? With the weekly 4-hour infomercial that airs nationally, you would think Weis could get any player he wanted for the most part. I was nauseous having to listen to Tom Hammond and Pat Haden spew continuous nonsense about how close this team is to winning big. News-flash: they are not one of the best 35 teams in America right now; and that's with an All-American QB. One of them was up in arms about how USC caught a break (intentional grounding instead of a fumble); a break that was called correctly by the officials. I didn't know forward passes could be fumbles Tom. Thanks for clarifying.

* Ohio St.'s offense is putrid. Jim Tressel has to take accountability at some point for Terrelle Pryor's poor performances (3 fumbles, 2 interceptions against 1-5 Purdue). I have to think that Michigan is happy he didn't come to Ann Arbor.

* Call me crazy, but I think Miami might be the best team in America right now. They'll be favored from here on out and should finish 11-1 with a great strength of schedule rating. The U is back.

Week 6 Picks

A stellar Week 5 for myself. Too bad the money was in college football last week. Vegas can't seem to push some of these lines high enough. As always, home team in caps:

Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON

I've been burned before by Washington giving a touchdown at home (Tampa Bay). I'm not about to lay any points with the Redskins. Even at 2-3, I'm starting to think this team belongs in my horrible teams tier. Chiefs get their first win.

Houston (+5.5) over CINCINNATI

The Texans could easily be 4-1 and the Bengals could easily be 1-4. The NFL is a funny place. I think the Texans hang tough with Cincy in what could be a let down game after last week's win over the Ravens.

PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland

Oh my. Cleveland had a hard time scoring 6 points against the Bills last week (in a win I might add; you didn't hear about the Cleveland-Buffalo game because Roger Goodell liquidated the game footage faster than the Patriots spy tapes). The Steelers need an easy win right now and the Browns will oblige.

Baltimore (+3) over MINNESOTA

Hey, it's a good game. Don't get used to it. The Viking gave up 400 yards to the Kyle Boller-led Rams last week. If not for 3 fumbles, who knows what may have happened. I'm not sold on this Vikings defense yet and the Ravens have the weapons to exploit the overrated secondary. I like Flacco and the boys to get back on the winning track.

JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. Louis

How bad are the Rams? They are getting almost 10 points against a team that lost by 41 the previous week. I'm not sure that's ever happened. Sadly, they'd have to be getting more for me to bet on them.

New York Giants (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

I watched the Jets defense shut down the Drew Brees attack in the Super Dome a couple weeks ago. I think the Giants Defense is better and Eli won't make the mistakes that Sanchez did. I really don't think this one will be close. The fact I'm getting points is just the icing on the cake.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina

Tails won the coin flip.

Detroit (+13.5) over GREEN BAY

Has Vegas seen Green Bay's offensive line? Detroit can score with anyone and Aaron Rodgers spends half his time on his back (and not in the good way). Green Bay will win because Detroit doesn't have the talent to play with the Pack for 4 quarters, but this is way too many points to lay.

Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND

I have so much to say and yet, it comes down to a simple fact. Oakland and JaMarcus Russell are putrid. This line could have been -28 and I wouldn't have flinched. I've never seen a home team as such a huge dog.

Arizona (+3) over SEATTLE

I can't get a feel for Arizona, but I don't think Seattle is 3 points better. This is a game the Cardinals have to have to defend their division title. Quietly, the 3-team NFC West has become competitive. Yes, I know the Rams are in the division. I just refuse to acknowledge them as a team.

NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo

Another "did Vegas see Team X play last week" game. The Bills held the Browns Derek Anderson to 2-17 for 23 yards and a QB Rating of 15.1...and lost the game. Mark Sanchez could have a QB Rating of 5 and win the game. The Jets D is stout and will have no problem containing an offense running on fumes.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee

The Pats haven't lost consecutive games in 3 years. The Titans haven't won a game this year. You do the math.

ATLANTA (-3) over Chicago

A great battle of young quarterbacks. Matt Ryan has better weapons and has proven more up to this point in his young career. Jay Cutler has held off on his urge to throw the ball to the wrong team. Not this week.

SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver

This is my last hurrah. I will never pick against the Broncos again if they win this game. The perennial Super Bowl favorites are in a must win situation as a loss would practically give the division to the Broncos. I think Philip Rivers finally shows the cracks in the Denver defense and puts up a huge number.

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 40-36

Week 5 Picks

New rule: take favorites. As always Home team in Caps.

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS

The Rams are the worst team in football. Eventually, the Vikings play an NFL team. Just not this week.

Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY

Okay, I lied. Kansas City is the worst team in football. In general, the state of Missouri needs to try a new sport. Two huge favorites on the road. This will determine if the Cowboys are worthy of playoff talk. A good team destroys a bad team, even on the road.

Washington (+3.5) over CAROLINA

This is an atrocious football game. Washington's 2 wins are at home over Tampa Bay and St. Louis...by a combined 5 points. Still, Jake Delhomme is a veteran at throwing the ball to players in the color of jersey he is not wearing. I'll take the points when I can get them against Jake.

PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay

We're entering our "really good teams against really bad teams" portion of this week's games. Oh, never mind; every game falls into that category it would seem.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-15) over Oakland

See what I mean.

Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO

Did anyone watch Buffalo against the Dolphins last week? As bad as the Browns are (competing with the Missouri duo for the #1 pick next year), Buffalo isn't far behind. It's a lot of points to give between two bad teams.

Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE

I love the Cincinnati defense. It's physical and stops the run as well as any other defense. I don't think they'll win outright, but the Bengals will hang tough and cover. The Ravens are still thinking about grazing Tom Brady.

DETROIT (+10.5) over Pittsburgh

This Lions team is a different entity at home. The Steelers are a good team, but aren't necessarily a blow out winner. I just noticed I'm picking dogs and ignoring my rule. Well, eventually some of these teams have to cover.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Interesting line. If we assume home field is worth 3 points, then it appears Vegas thinks the Falcons are a slightly better team. So do I. Coming off a bye the offense will be stellar and pull out the win.

New England (-3) over DENVER

Well, I've given in. The Broncos are a good football team. But Mr. Belichick rarely loses to one of his overrated pupils. Josh McDaniels might be a good coach, but he's a while away from beating the Pats.

Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA

What have the Cards done to be a 5.5 point favorite over a Texans team that scores points in bushels (not literally)? I like Houston in a shootout to win outright so you know I'm absolutely giddy about getting nearly a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE

I have no opinion whatsoever. Two enigmas. I'll take the one coming off a good win with a healthy quarterback.

Indianapolis (-4) over TENNESSEE

Feels like Vegas is begging me to take the Colts. I shall and should collect. They are an extremely good road team and the Titans secondary is horrible. I think the Colts have a pretty good QB.

MIAMI (+2) over New York Jets

I believe the Dolphins have the defense to give young Sanchez trouble. Of course the Jets have the defense to give the young Henne trouble. So call this a gut feeling that the Dolphins defense will come to play at home in front of a national audience.

Last Week: 5-9

Season: 30-32

An outsider's perspective

We are 1/4th into the Brett Favre-Minnesota experiment. The culmination of the first quarter happened to be a Monday Night Football game between Favre and the Vikings and his former team, the Green Bay Packers. Even though the game was in Minnesota, the hype was immeasurable. My thoughts:

* I was skeptical, but through 4 games, Brad Childress looks incredibly intelligent. Favre is making throws that even last year he struggled to complete (the skinny post to Rice for a TD in the San Francisco game comes to mind). Maybe, the arm is healthy. I personally think that playing in a dome is helping. And the weak competition doesn't hurt (Browns, Lions, 49ers, Packers).

* I will continue to applaud the Packers for making the QB change to Aaron Rodgers. He throws an absolutely gorgeous ball and I think he is the better QB at this time (the offensive line not so much).

* Can the media please stop fawning over this man? I know he loves it (as evidenced by the constant summer attention), but he doesn't ask for John Gruden's everlasting approval. Gruden was not able to do his job as an analyst Monday night because he was too enamored with Favre.

* As good as Favre was Monday, it has to disturb the Vikings that Adrian Peterson struggled so mightily. They are a good team with the possibility to be fantastic and Super Bowl contenders as long as Peterson lives up to his previous performance. I think he will, but the Packers showed that stopping him is possible.

Week 4 Picks

As always, home teams in caps.

HOUSTON (-9) over Oakland

Jamarcus Russel has completed 41.3% of passes this year. I think I could nail 50 for the Raiders. Oakland can't make big plays down the field and Houston can.

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

The Titans are a desperate team at 0-3. I'm giving them one final chance to get involved in the 09-10 NFL season. On a side note, this game will be blacked out most definitely.

Baltimore (+2) over NEW ENGLAND

I don't feel great about this one. But based on what I've watched, Tom Brady is not quite comfortable in the pocket and that's never a good thing when playing the Ravens. The Pats defense has overachieved so far.

Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND

This falls under my new rule: bet against teams that hate their new coach after three games. Also, the Browns have scored 1 offensive TD in the past 32 quarters (and that was last year).

New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs should be able to top The Bucs performance of last week (80 yards of offense). They should at least get to 110 yards against the Giants.

Detroit (+10) over CHICAGO

The winning streak won't continue, but the cover streak should. This Lions team is feeling great about itself and Stafford is playing with confidence. The Bears win a close one.

WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Tampa Bay

Well, at least the Redskins don't play the Lions this week. I've got 5 words for you: Josh Johnson on the road. Even the Redskins can't blow this one.

INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Seattle

Good news: the Seahawks won't be wearing those uniforms on the road. Bad news: Peyton Manning is on the field.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over New York Jets

I think I might be the only human being left who is skeptical of the Jets. Has anyone else noticed that Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do anything yet? This is a true road test for the young QB. The Saints crush this Jets defense and send them back to reality.

Buffalo (-1.5) over MIAMI

I can't talk myself into caring about this game. My only thought is Chad Henne's first start is against an underrated Buffalo defense.

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) over St. Louis

The last of my four horrible teams to bet against, the Rams. Frank Gore is out and the 49ers are still almost double digit favorites. It's going to be a long year in the midwest.

Dallas (-3) over DENVER

I'm not buying the Broncos 3-0 start (like most of America). The Cowboys should be able to run the ball all game and Kyle Orton threatens no one down the field.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH

I think this line is absurdly high. The Chargers have the most talent in football and Pittsburgh is missing their all-world safety. Philip Rivers throws the deep ball better than anyone. I think the Chargers win outright.

Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA

This is the game that will shatter all viewing records. Favre vs. Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is the better QB and he'll make the plays necessary to win the game. Keep in mind the Vikings have beat the Browns, Lions, and luckily got past the 49ers. The Packers are in a different league.

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 25-23

Giving the NHL some love

I've decided to throw out my Stanley Cup Finals pick for the 09-10 season. I'm not sure why; I don't follow hockey aggressively until February, but I'm sensing a revival of hockey in America. It's the best playoff sport (if you can find it on television) and it looks amazing in HD. The tragic thing about the NHL is the huge discrepancy in the good and bad teams. The playoff teams for the most part are set, save for the last couple of seeds in each conference. The great thing that the NHL has going for it is the original six (Montreal, Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, New York Rangers, Boston) are once again relevant. It also has a couple of young stars in Pittsburgh (Crosby) and Washington (Ovechkin) to carry the league for years. I think it's Ovechkin's turn to reach the Stanley Cup Finals; but he'll struggle against a formidable Detroit Red Wings Defense. The Wings will hoist the Cup for the second time in three years. Hockey, I'll see you in February.

An overdue post

I've been dealing with computer issues and whatnot, but that's no excuse for not making this post a few days ago. The run has ended, but what the Atlanta Braves have accomplished since August 1 has been nothing short of remarkable. The Braves were left for dead on numerous occasions only to reel off several sizable winning streaks to get back into wild card contention. They were at one point 2 games behind the Colorado Rockies after being as far back as 8 games in September. But that's not why I'm writing about the Braves. I'm here to salute Bobby Cox. Now those close to me know that I've never been an Atlanta supporter (probably has something to do with my obnoxious brother, a notorious Brave fan). But Bobby Cox might be the most underrated individual in sports during my lifetime. 14 straight division titles. In 24 years with the Braves, he has compiled a .557 winning percentage, a truly staggering number in baseball. Word has come out that Cox will be retiring after next year. His place is reserved in the Hall of Fame as a manager. Protractors point out the fact that Cox has only won one World Series in those 24 years. It's not that easy to win a World Series people. Especially in a luke warm market like Atlanta. Baseball's playoffs are more of a crapshoot than anything with the best team rarely winning (Cardinals in '06, Phillies in '08, etc.). Bobby Cox should go down as a top 10 manager of all time. I have a feeling he will be forgotten quickly, but what Bobby Cox has accomplished over the past two decades is worthy of praise. Even from an admitted Brave-hater.