Week 3 Picks (albeit late)

Well, contrary to what you may have thought, I was not so ashamed with my week 2 performance that I had quit. I've had some computer issues, but I did make my picks as always. After a 6-10 Week 2, I turned in a 10-6 week (winners were Detroit, San Francisco, Chicago, San Diego, Baltimore, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Green Bay). A couple of thoughts:

1. Brett Favre; lucky throw. Greg Lewis; heck of a catch. I will continue to be against the Vikings.

2. Good for the Detroit Lions (my personal team of choice). They are faaaar from the worst team in football this year.

3. The Bengals are the real deal. The defense hits hard and Carson Palmer looks comfortable in the pocket for the first time in years.

4. Please bet against Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and St. Louis all year. These are 3 of the worst teams I've seen in a while; worse than the '08 Lions. They won't lose every game, but these teams are terrible. KC might not be far behind.

Week 2: 6-10

Week 3: 10-6

Season: 25-23

Week 2 Picks

As always, home team in caps. We'll see if we can bounce back after a 9-7 week that was ruined by a couple of Monday night games in which heavyweights played like amateurs.

Oakland (+3) over KANSAS CITY

This Raider team looked, dare I say, disciplined Monday night against the Chargers. The Chiefs will struggle to score on a surprisingly stout defense.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Houston

Two teams who lost in week 1, but you wouldn't know it based on how they played. The Titans defense looked better than ever in falling to the Steelers in OT on opening night, while the Texans looked dreadful in every facet.

New England (-3.5) over NY JETS

This game seems like easy picking to me. Folks are down on the Patriots after a poor week one performance and the Jets played the Texans. Look for Brady to light up the Jets secondary.

GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati

I was burned once by the Bengals. It will not happen again. The Packer 3-4 Defense looked very good, forcing Cutler into one bad decision after another.

DETROIT (+10) over Minnesota

This is the week. The week that the streak ends. The Lions know Favre's tendencies and can force him into mistakes. Look for them to load up on ADP and force Favre to throw down field.

PHILADELPHIA (PK) over New Orleans

The Eagles defense isn't the Lions defense. I think McNabb guts it out and leads his Eagles to a huge win. The Saints defense couldn't stop a high school offense.

ATLANTA (-6) over Carolina

Delhomme is starting. That will be all.

WASHINGTON (-9.5) over St. Louis

Is this the week the Rams score a point? I doubt it. The Redskins defense is not the issue.

Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE

Weird game. Writing these two team names down together just looks odd. The Arizona wide receivers will be able to exploit the over-aggressive Jaguar secondary.

Seattle (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

One of these teams is for real and will win the NFC West. I've been banging the Seahawks for a while as that team and I'm not about to stop now. This should be a great, boring game.

BUFFALO (-5) over Tampa Bay

The Bucs are traveling to the north during the right time of the year. Problem is it wouldn't matter when they went to Buffalo as the Bucs offense is atrocious and the Bills might not be as bad as expected.

DENVER (-3) over Cleveland

I almost didn't make a pick in this game. What a joke of a match up.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Baltimore

Game of the week. Tough road trip for the Ravens. Rivers is good enough to put up points against a Ravens defense that did not look very stout against a weak Chiefs team.

Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO

Jay Cutler O/U interceptions: 3. The Bears could be in for a long season.

DALLAS (-3) over New York Giants

Jerry is opening up his new stadium and I think the Cowboys will do it in grand fashion. I still think the Giants are the better team, but emotion and adrenaline will be on the 'Boys side.

Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI

Chad Pennington has to be perfect for the Dolphins to win. Peyton Manning usually is perfect.

Last week: 9-7

Season: 9-7

Miami-GT

7:23 PM - Welcome to my first live blog. I'm joined by some grilled chicken, grilled zucchini and mushrooms, and some iced tea. Quite the company. Just wanted to throw out my prediction for the game before it starts. This is a Miami team needing to prove that the FSU win was no fluke. Also, playing its first home game should help. I think they'll struggle to stop the triple option attack as they did last year in Atlanta, but the offense is much improved and the defense has at least seen the option this time around. I like Miami's athletes a tad bit more and the Hurricanes will pull it out 31-23.

7:34 PM - I'd like to mention that I'm happy Erin Andrews could make it out for the game.

7:47 PM - This game brought to you by Jimmy Buffet and Landshark Beer.

7:51 PM - I remember in the past when teams could not run the option on Miami. I don't know if it's a lack of discipline or poor coaching, but this Miami defense is taking horrible angles on the option. GT is moving down the field pretty easily and the ball hasn't been in the air.

7:54 PM - 3rd & 6 from the Miami 17. GT runs for a 1 yard gain. The only time they were stopped is when Nesbitt made a poor read. Field Goal is good. 3-0 GT

8:03 PM - Well that was fast. In stark contrast to GT's running game, Miami strikes fast. 75 yards in 4 plays capped by a 40 yard TD pass by Jacory Harris to LaRon Byrd. Miami has an abundance of athletes.

8:07 PM - Miami's kicker has now had two kickoffs tonight. And twice he's hooked it out of bounds. How's the depth chart looking?

8:24 PM - A second TD for Harris. And wow the Tight End was W-I-D-E open. This Miami offense looks incredible. I'm starting to wonder if Miami is capable of a 10-2 season. It looks like it could get ugly, especially considering that GT is an option team.

8:33 PM - 3rd & 12 from the Miami 29. Incomplete pass by Nesbitt. Looks like Paul Johnson is going to go for it on 4th down. Flag down; pass interference on Miami.

8:45 PM - Miami just tacked on a field goal. My interest is waning. By the way, apparently, Miami voted its kicker MVP of the team last year. I'm speechless over this revelation.

8:52 PM - Wow. Travis Benjamin is fast. Really fast. He just reversed field and ran about 35 yards for a 13 yard gain. I like Randy Shannon, but you don't teach that stuff.

9:07 PM - Halftime. 17-3 Miami. A couple of observations:

1. The Miami front 4 is getting a great push, which is eliminating space on the option

2. Jacory Harris is really good. Where did this sophomore come from?

3. GT has great team speed; Miami's speed is in another stratosphere though.

I don't see the Jackets making a run with the limited air attack and inability to keep up with the speedy Hurricane receivers.

9:29 PM - I want to point out that Randy Shannon is one of my favorite college coaches. Energetic, charismatic, creative. He's a dynamic coach who attracts talented kids and gives young players a chance to play from their initial practice. He's exactly the kind of coach that I would love to play for (you know, if I was eighteen and an All-American athlete). I'm just glad that Miami has stuck with him; the future is quite radiant.

9:33 PM - The route is on. 24-3 Miami after Harris just led another TD drive to open the second half. Play is under review now, but James was definitely in. I'm going to stop posting for a while as I'm following less and less now. My final thought (for now): Miami is really good; way better than I or anyone else realized. They've dominated this game from the outset and are in full control of the Coastal division of the ACC.

Trying something new

Trying something new. I'll be live blogging during the Miami-Georgia Tech game. Why? I don't know. Seems like it would be fun and maybe I can provide some insight in real time. Anyway, check back around 7:30pm tonight.

Michael Crabtree

Michael Crabtree is either the most spoiled human being in the world or the stupidest. I'm leaning towards the former, but it's probably a combination. Michael Crabtree was the 10th overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers this past April in the NFL Draft. He has yet to sign and the 49ers are set to kick off in 30 minutes. At this point, there is no reason for either side to budge. Crabtree begins missing game checks today and the 49ers have prepared all summer and fall without him. Crabtree has threatened to hold out the entire year and re-enter the draft next April because he believes he will be a top 5 pick. I'm not completely sure where he's getting this information, but I don't think one improves their draft position by not playing for a year. He will be forgotten by next April; an afterthought. He may be drafted 20th, but if the 10th pick money is not enough for him, why would the 20th pick money entice him to sign? What college kid turns down 12-15 million dollars? Either a spoiled one or a moron. The 49ers have offered him a deal for an amount between what the 9th pick and 11th pick signed for; seems completely plausible to me. Crabtree wants top 5 money; seems irrefutably moronic and illogical to me. I just hope this kid realizes that he's throwing away a lot of money and ruining his future earning power (through endorsements and performing well this year) over something so completely idiotic. I remember during the week leading up to the draft Eric Mangini mentioned that Crabtree seemed like a prima donna and had character concerns. This appears to be one time that Mangini is right.

College Football Week 2

It's a fairly weak slate of games this week on the college football landscape. Of course, USC-Ohio St. makes up for the lack of other games pitting top 25 teams against one another. Michigan-Notre Dame of course has history and tradition on its side, but neither team has been a national contender in years. The rest of the college schedule is so unappealing that I'm heading to the UVA-TCU game instead of watching all of the action. And even as appealing as the USC-Ohio St. is on paper, reality says that USC has more talent all over the field and should win fairly easily. Let's call it 27-10 with a dominating run game controlling the football. As for Michigan-Notre Dame, I'll take Michigan at home in a slight upset. Sadly, it's the only time I'd take a Big 10 team to win an out of conference game.

Week 1 Picks

I've decided to pick every game this year against the spread and see how I fair against prognosticators across the sports landscape. Without further ado (Home team in caps).

ATLANTA (-4) over Miami

Matt Ryan picks up right where he left off last year with a fast Atlanta offense on the turf.

BALTIMORE (-12.5) over Kansas City

Hate taking huge favorites, but I think Baltimore's defense will score enough to cover this spread against a team that fired it's offensive coordinator...last week.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over CAROLINA

Best early game; no Vick, no distractions for Eagles. Delhomme and turnovers for Panthers.

CINCINNATI (-4.5) over Denver

Wow. I can't believe I just typed that; no gambler would ever take the Bengals and give 4.5. That's how bad these Broncos are folks.

CLEVELAND (+4) over Minnesota

I'm sorry, but a 40-year old QB on the road with barely 2 weeks of prep time? I'll be going against the Vikings often I believe.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over New York Jets

Houston is the trendy pick to be "this year's Falcons." This pick is more about the fact that Mario Williams will be leading a pass rush against a rookie QB with 13 college starts.

Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS

My pick for bounce back team is the Jaguars. This is a team a year removed from giving the undefeated Pats a game in the AFC Divisional Round.

Detroit (+13) over NEW ORLEANS

Way too many points for a New Orleans defense. The Lions will score, but struggle to stop the Brees attack.

DALLAS (-6) over Tampa Bay

Will Jessica Simpson be the Offensive Coordinator for the Bucs?

ARIZONA (-6.5) over San Francisco

Arizona will return to mediocrity; just not against a 49er team that doesn't do anything well.

Washington (+6.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Toughest game to gauge. Two really good defenses that should limit the scoring. So it'll be 45-42

SEATTLE (-7.5) over St. Louis

I have no opinion on this game. That means I have something in common with 98% of America.

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago

Great Sunday night game; Rodgers will get the best of a banged up Bears secondary.

NEW ENGLAND (-11.5) over Buffalo

This spread could have been 20 and I'd have picked the Pats. Apparently, Buffalo is running a "Pop Warner" offense in the hurry up. I'm sure this will turn out well.

San Diego (-9.5) over OAKLAND

There is no greater talent discrepancy between two teams in any other game this week.

This week = 1-0

Year = 1-0

Super Bowl Pick

Well, it's that time of year; the time of year where more marriages end than any other time: NFL season. Tonight's Pittsburgh-Tennessee game kicks off the season as the defending champion Steelers host the Titans. Pittsburgh is giving 6, which seems high to me initially considering these were the two best teams in Football last year. I'll take the Titans and the points as I do think it's going to be a low scoring affair. I'll post the rest of my week one picks Friday morning.

Now, as for the Super Bowl. This year seems extremely top heavy as there are 4-5 teams in each conference that I think have a shot at winning it all. In the AFC, the Pats, Steelers, and Chargers appear to be loaded. Also, I love the Ravens as a sleeper for the title. I do think the Colts will struggle this year, but I won't count out any team led by Peyton Manning. I'll go with the Chargers this year. I've picked them the last couple years based on the fact they have the best roster in the AFC and I'm a believer that talent wins out eventually.

In the NFC, the teams I see with a shot are Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Green Bay, Chicago, and Atlanta. The Falcons are a bit too young and porous on defense to win consistently in the postseason. As with the AFC, I'll go with the team that has the best 53-man roster and that is the Philadelphia Eagles. This offense will be dynamic and the defense is disruptive and creates numerous turnovers. As for the big game, give me Philadelphia over San Diego in a game that will have the most talent on the field of any game in my lifetime.

Brad Penny's San Fran debut

I really hate to beat a dead horse but...Brad Penny just got done shutting down the best offense in the NL, the Philadelphia Phillies, for 8 innings. 5 hit ball was more than enough for his first win in the NL. With the Red Sox, Penny went 7-8 with a 5.61 ERA this year including a horrid 1-6 record over his last 11 starts. I'd like to say I'm shocked, but I'd be lying. It's just another example of a pitcher going from the AL to the NL and finding immediate success.

Quick College Football Preview

The 09-10 College Football Season is about to kick off on Thursday night with a great game between Boise St. and Oregon. I love early season inter-conference games because of the novelty and rarity of the match ups. Alabama-Va. Tech, USC-Ohio St., and Georgia-Ok. St. are just three of the games in the first couple weeks I'm amped to see. But the end point of college football is the BCS title game. All other bowl games are meaningless unless you're the name on the Bowl (believe me, we all get amped for the Papa Johns.com Bowl). I've seen most "experts" picking Florida vs. X with X being a variety of teams from Ohio St. (God, I hope not) to Notre Dame (yes, Lou Holtz is an "expert"). I won't bore you with my long reasoning. I'll just say that there are only four teams this year that will truly matter and two of them play each other: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC. I'll take Texas over USC in a game not quite as well played as that '05 Rose Bowl. Colt McCoy is the best player in America on the best team. A Heisman and a national title are lovely parting gifts for the senior QB.

Thome to the...Dodgers?

I'm a bit confused today. I woke up (way earlier than a human being should have to may I add) to the news that Jim Thome had been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yes, those Dodgers. The same team that resides in the NL, a territory where the DH is non-existent. And yes, that is all Thome is at this point in his career. Even he insists the same. Thome has come out and said he does not want to play 1st Base so at best, he might pinch-hit 25 times down the stretch and play in any World Series games in an AL park. That's if the Dodgers reach the World Series and I'd place them 3rd in the NL's current pecking order. I realize it won't cost the Dodgers more than a second-rate minor leaguer to acquire Thome. But bringing in a DH for an NL contender seems like a waste of a roster spot regardless of the cost.